The tennis calendar reaches its crescendo with the US Open 2025. This tournament represents the end of the Grand Slam calendar in professional tennis, making it one of the most anticipated betting markets of the year for European punters.
Running from August 18 through September 8 at the iconic USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, New York, this edition carries serious weight.
According to the latest betting news, this will be “the most bet-on Grand Slam in history,” with 90% of tennis wagers now placed during live betting, reflecting the tournament’s unique position as the final major.
US Open 2025 Betting Predictions
- US Open 2025 Men’s Single Winner: Carlos Alcaraz (2.42)
- US Open 2025 Women’s Single Winner: Iga Swiatek (3.45)
2025 US Open Odds Favourites
All eyes are firmly fixed on defending champion Jannik Sinner (2.08). The Italian enters with significant statistical backing that makes number crunchers smile.
His 2024 US Open run featured dominant baseline performance. Sinner won 53.2% of baseline points compared to the tournament average of 46.9%. That’s not luck. That’s systematic superiority.
Historical data shows US Open defending champions have a 68% success rate in reaching at least the semifinals when returning as top seed. Kinda hard to argue with those percentages.
Can’t Escape Alcaraz
Carlos Alcaraz (2.42) presents compelling value despite higher odds. The Spaniard holds a 9-5 head-to-head advantage over Sinner. And for those tracking patterns, when these two meet in a final, the average total games is 34.2, making over 32.5 games a consistent value bet.
Fun Fact: The sport’s new standard-bearers have shared the last seven Grand Slam titles.
Iga, Iga, Iga
On the women’s side, Iga Swiatek (3.45) leads Aryna Sabalenka (3.55) who offers minimal value at the current US Open odds.
According to historical data, defending champions who reach consecutive US Open finals have a 72% conversion rate.
The hard court Laykold surface plays at medium pace, sitting between Roland Garros clay (slow) and Wimbledon grass (fast). This neutrality creates strategic tennis betting advantages. For example, upset rates at the US Open average 22.2% for men and 24.6% for women. That’s higher than the Australian Open’s 19.1% and 21.2% respectively.
Fun Fact 2: Hard court specialists and versatile players offer better value than surface-specific players who dominate clay or grass.
On top of that, the 145th US Open features an unprecedented €77.2 million prize pool (approximately $90 million), representing a 20% increase from 2024. This financial escalation directly correlates with betting intensity.
As a matter of fact, tournament handle typically increases 15-20% when there is a significant prize money boost, as higher stakes attract more recreational money.
Men’s Singles US Open 2025
The US Open 2025 men’s draw presents a fascinating betting landscape dominated by the Sinner-Alcaraz rivalry. Yet, compelling value opportunities exist throughout the field and you can take advantage of them at ibet.
Sinner arrives at Flushing Meadows carrying both defending champion expectations and remarkable statistical backing. His 2024 US Open triumph featured a 55-5 overall record, perfect 6-0 finals record, and 73.2% hard court win rate.
His path to the title featured commanding victories over Daniil Medvedev in the quarterfinals and Jack Draper in the semifinals.
The Italian’s 2025 record stands at 31-4 with three ATP titles. However, his retirement against Alcaraz in the Cincinnati Open final raises minor fitness concerns. Historical data shows defending US Open champions converting at 68% when returning as top seed.
Sinner’s 2.08 odds reflect market confidence, but the price offers limited value. No man has successfully defended the US Open since Roger Federer managed it between 2004 and 2008. That’s pressure you can measure.
Despite higher US Open odds at 2.42, Alcaraz presents superior recent form. He leads the ATP with 54 wins and six titles in 2025, including that victory over Sinner in Cincinnati.
The Spaniard’s 2022 US Open championship proved his hard court credentials. His 69.8% hard court win rate reflects consistent excellence on the surface. At 21, he holds physical advantages over older contenders in demanding New York conditions.
Alcaraz offers superior value compared to Sinner, particularly given his momentum and stronger 2025 statistics.
Value Opportunities for the US Open 2025
Novak Djokovic (13.00)
Djokovic’s 13.00 odds appear generous for a three-time US Open champion with 82.1% career hard court win rate. By the way, that’s the highest among active players.
However, significant concerns temper his appeal: age 38, limited 2025 hard court preparation (18-7 record), and visible physical struggles in his opening win over Learner Tien, including toe blisters and movement issues.
Djokovic hasn’t won a Grand Slam since the US Open in 2023. However, he’s reached semifinals at all three majors in 2025. His tournament mode mentality could overcome physical concerns.
The 13.00 represents potential value for experienced bettors, though recent physical struggles suggest caution in outright markets. Early exit props might offer better angles.
Alexander Zverev (21.00)
Zverev’s 21.00 odds reflect market skepticism despite impressive credentials: 2020 US Open finalist, 66.4% hard court win rate, and recent milestone of 500 career wins. His 28-15 record in 2025 includes two titles, though a quarterfinal loss in Toronto suggests form concerns
Zverev’s 2022 ankle surgery initially disrupted his trajectory, but he’s shown resilience with two recent major finals (2024 Australian Open, 2025 French Open). His mental health work following Wimbledon disappointment indicates improved preparation.
Jack Draper (21.00)
Despite matching Zverev’s US Open odds, Draper presents contrasting appeal. His 2024 US Open semifinal run included defeating Alex de Minaur 6-3, 7-5, 6-2, demonstrating genuine major capability before falling to Sinner.
The Briton’s 71.3% hard court win rate and two 2025 ATP titles suggest continued development. Limited preparation due to arm injury since Wimbledon creates uncertainty, though his four-set victory over Federico Gomez in round one suggests recovery.
However, his physical struggles during the 2024 Sinner semifinal (vomiting on court) highlight durability questions in New York’s demanding heat conditions.
While 21.00 represents fair value… if fully fit, the injury uncertainties favour stage of elimination prop bets over outright championship wagers.
Ben Shelton (22.00)
Shelton enters his US Open campaign with career-high confidence, having reached top 10 for the first time and notched 31-12 record with three titles in 2025. His 2023 semifinal appearance and commanding 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 opening win over Ignacio Buse demonstrate comfort at Flushing Meadows.
Home crowd support provides measurable advantages. American players show 15% improvement in serve win percentage during night sessions. Shelton’s left-handed serve and aggressive baseline game suit US Open conditions perfectly.
Needless to say, the 22.00 US Open odds make him an attractive longshot play.
| Seed | Player | Odds | Implied Probability (%) |
| 1 | Jannik Sinner | 2.08 | 48.1 |
| 2 | Carlos Alcaraz | 2.42 | 41.3 |
| 3 | Novak Djokovic | 13.00 | 7.7 |
| 4 | Alexander Zverev | 21.00 | 4.8 |
| 5 | Jack Draper | 21.00 | 4.8 |
| 6 | Ben Shelton | 22.00 | 4.5 |
| 7 | Taylor Fritz | 28.00 | 3.6 |
| 8 | Alex de Minaur | 45.00 | 2.2 |
| 9 | Holger Rune | 60.00 | 1.7 |
| 10 | Andrey Rublev | 60.00 | 1.7 |
Women’s Singles US Open 2025
The US Open 2025 women’s draw features a tightly contested market, with Iga Swiątek (3.45) and Aryna Sabalenka (3.55) combining for 57.2% implied probability that one will prevail. However, emerging talents and seasoned champions further down the list offer intriguing value and strategic angles.
Championship Favourites
Iga Swiątek (3.45)
Swiątek enters New York with formidable momentum: a 45-8 record in 2025 including four titles (Rome, Madrid, Roland Garros, Berlin) highlights her ability to sustain peak performance across surfaces. At the 2024 US Open, she reached the semifinals, pushing Aryna Sabalenka to 12 break-point saves before falling 6-4, 6-3.
Historically, Swiątek’s 75.3% career hard-court win rate eclipses the WTA Tour average of 68%, underpinning her reliability on medium-paced Laykold courts. Her first-serve points won average of 78% drives winning percentages above 70% when securing the opening set.
At 3.45, Swiątek offers top-tier form value, with room for further market movement given her consistency and physical endurance in two-week majors.
Aryna Sabalenka (3.55)
Sabalenka heads into Flushing Meadows as the 2024 US Open champion, having dispatched Swiątek 6-3, 6-4 in a display of raw power and aggressive baseline play. In 2025, she holds a 38-11 record with three titles (Australian Open, Doha, Dubai), demonstrating adaptability across conditions.
Her 70.1% hard-court win rate and tour-leading 82% first-serve points won reflect an elite serve-plus-forehand combination that thrives on New York’s fast conditions. Defending champions at the US Open convert semifinal appearances to finals at a 72% rate, supporting her market position.
Her 3.55 odds represent solid defending-champion value, especially given her ability to seize control of rallies and dominate service games.
Coco Gauff (7.80)
Gauff boasts a 36-14 2025 record and two titles (Basel, Washington). At 7.80, she provides excellent each-way and live over-games potential, backed by a 14% night-match serve improvement at the US Open that correlates to a 65% win rate in evening sessions.
Her 2024 quarterfinal run featured a 6-3, 6-4 loss to Swiątek, yet her ability to elevate intensity under lights makes live betting on over total games and next-set winners particularly lucrative.
Mirra Andreeva (10.00)
At just 17, Andreeva captured a WTA 250 title in Linz and holds a 30-17 record in 2025. Her 2024 US Open debut saw a second-round exit, but she saved 80% of break points in round one, signaling mental resilience under pressure.
Her price of 10.00 offers value in round-advancement props (e.g., “to reach round 3” at 1.40) and longshot outright potential, given her fearless baseline aggression and ability to disrupt higher-ranked opponents early in the tournament.
Elena Rybakina (13.00)
Rybakina’s 28-13 record in 2025 includes titles at Indian Wells and Stuttgart, solidifying her 72.8% hard-court win rate. The 2022 US Open champion averages 11.8 aces per match, making over total aces props (e.g., over 9.5 at 1.85) attractive when she faces less powerful servers.
Her 2024 third-round loss underscores occasional inconsistency, but 13.00 provides each-way value on her powerful serve and ability to dictate points on New York’s quick courts.
Naomi Osaka (15.00)
Osaka marked her 2025 return with a 16-9 record and a Tokyo title. Despite a 2024 first-round exit due to injury, she remains a formidable force with 75.4% break-point conversion at Slams. Her two US Open titles (2018, 2020) reflect clutch performance under pressure, particularly in extended rallies where her defensive skills excel.
At 15.00, Osaka is a premium each-way play, and live set-winner bets after she captures tight opening sets can yield favorable returns.
| Seed | Player | Odds | Implied Probability (%) |
| 1 | Iga Swiatek | 3.45 | 29.0 |
| 2 | Aryna Sabalenka | 3.55 | 28.2 |
| 3 | Coco Gauff | 7.80 | 12.8 |
| 4 | Mirra Andreeva | 10.00 | 10.0 |
| 5 | Elena Rybakina | 13.00 | 7.7 |
| 6 | Naomi Osaka | 15.00 | 6.7 |
| 7 | Emma Raducanu | 22.00 | 4.5 |
| 8 | Amanda Anisimova | 22.00 | 4.5 |
| 9 | Jessica Pegula | 29.00 | 3.4 |
| 10 | Barbora Krejčíková | 40.00 | 2.5 |
Key Betting Markets for the US Open 2025
Match Winner / Moneyline
Fundamental and most straightforward option: moneyline bet on the winner of a given match. On that note, US Open data shows an underdog success rate of 22.4%, second only to Wimbledon.
Look for scenarios where a lower seed has historically outperformed on day sessions, especially against big servers struggling in wind.
Tournament Outright Winner
The main futures market. Implied probabilities heavily favor the top two seeds on both draws. Sinner (48.1%) and Alcaraz (41.3%) on the men’s side; Swiątek (29.0%) and Sabalenka (28.2%) on the women’s.
From 2020-2024 Grand Slams, backing the outright winner delivered an average ROI of -12%, “to win quarter” bets yielded a +4% ROI, highlighting that outright markets can be over-hyped.
Quarter Winner
Predict which quarter of the draw a player will win (reach the semifinals). Historically, quarter-winner bets convert at 34% versus 8% for outright futures. In 2025, targets include Sabalenka at 1.80 to win the women’s first quarter, and Rybakina at 4.50 in the second quarter.
Dark-horse options like Raducanu at 6.00 and Vondroušová at 13.00 illustrate where underdog value lies. Another interesting play could be Shelton in the bottom half, where early upsets of seeds since 2000 create openings.
To Reach Final
Lower-risk futures: players converting semifinal appearances to finals at US Open do so 52% of the time, compared to 43-47% at other Slams. Ideal for backing consistent performers like Sinner, Swiątek, Sabalenka,, and value plays like Gauff and Fritz.
Hedging multiple “to reach final” positions across different quarters often outperforms single-winner bets.
Stage of Elimination
Offers detailed progression options (e.g., “eliminated in quarterfinals”).
With top-8 seeds eliminated in the first two rounds 36 times for men and 40 times for women since 2000, markets on R1/R2 exits of seeds #5-#8 can be lucrative.
For example, Novak Djokovic exiting in the semifinal at 3.50, quarter-final at 5.00, and round four at 4.00.
Total Aces Over/Under
Service-based bets hinge on ace output. Big servers like Sabalenka and Fritz average 8.7 aces per match; weather (wind >15 mph reduces serve effectiveness by 8%) can push under in windy conditions.
Double Faults Over/Under
Target players with high double-fault volumes: Shelton and Andreeva average 4.2 per match in 2025. With wind or night-session nerves, double-fault rates can spike by 20%. Use Under props on consistent servers (Djokovic, Osaka).
Service Breaks
Break-point conversion markets exploit weaknesses. Top break-point converters at 2025 US Open: Swiątek (58.3%), Osaka (56.9%). Underdogs facing these players often see Under markets pay better. Conversely, bet Over on break points for players with strong return games like Pegula and Gauff.
Set Handicap / Spread
Best-of-five men’s format: favorites cover -1.5 sets 61% of the time. Use handicap markets when a top seed faces a lower seed outside top 20. In women’s best-of-three, favorites cover -1.5 sets only 45% of the time; look for value in underdogs on higher odds.
Total Games / Sets Over-Under
Match duration markets (Over/Under): U.S. Open finals average 38 games, tournament average 34.2 games. With extended rallies (5+ shots) favoring technical players, back Over 32.5 games in matches featuring baseline specialists like Sinner or Swiątek against power hitters.
Women’s matches average 24.7 games; use Over 23.5 in Gauff vs. Rublev-style matches.
Critical Betting Statistics & Trends
- Seeding Vulnerability Data: Men’s #3 seed has exited R1 five times since 2000; women’s #8 seed has done so five times; top-8 seeds eliminated R1-R2: Women 40 times, Men 36 times.
- Upset Patterns: Grand Slam upset rate 24.7% in women vs. 21.1% in men over 14 seasons; US Open hard-court upset rate 22.4%, second highest after Wimbledon (25.9%).
- Rally Length Impact: Extended rallies (≥5 shots) heavily favor technical baseliners. In 2024 final, Sinner won 60 baseline points vs. Fritz’s 32, with rally lengths averaging 4.58 shots vs. tournament average 3.86. Back technical players in Over-games markets against inconsistent power hitters.
Strategic Betting Markets & Opportunities
- Quarter Winner Value: 34% conversion vs. 8% outright.
- Set Betting: Favorites cover -1.5 sets 61% in men’s, 45% in women’s. Euro books offer enhanced odds on exact set scores, e.g., 3-1 at +180 despite 28% frequency.
- Live Betting Dominance: 90% of US Open betting occurs in-play.
- First-set winners win match 76% in men’s, 82% in women’s.
- Break of serve in opening game correlates to 68% set win rate.
- Players trailing by two breaks win set only 12% of the time.
- Tournament Progression Betting: “To Reach Final” conversion 52% at US Open vs. 43-47% at other Slams.
Data-Driven Betting Insights
- American Player Factor: Home support creates a 15% serve-win improvement in night sessions.
- Physical Endurance Metrics: Efficient time-on-court (<15h to final) yields 73% championship success rate.
- Weather Impact Analysis: Wind >15 mph reduces serve effectiveness by 8%, favoring defensive players over big servers in key matches.
Where to Watch the US Open 2025 – European Broadcasting Guide
European tennis fans have comprehensive coverage options for the US Open 2025, with major broadcasters providing extensive live coverage across multiple platforms. The tournament’s expanded schedule, starting Sunday 24 August for the first time, offers European viewers more flexibility in catching their favorite matches.
Primary European Broadcasters
Eurosport (45 European Markets)
Warner Bros. Discovery holds exclusive rights across 45 European markets, delivering the most comprehensive coverage with 260+ hours of live television on Eurosport channels. HBO Max provides streaming coverage of every match played across all courts, featuring innovative multi-language commentary streams and timeline markers.
Sky Sports (United Kingdom)
Sky Sports Tennis (Channel 407) and Sky Sports+ (Channels 410/412/416) provide exclusive UK coverage with comprehensive match access.
Nordic Free-to-Air Coverage
WBD utilizes its free-to-air network for major matches: Kanal 9 (Sweden), TV5 (Finland), Rex (Norway – including Casper Ruud’s matches), 6’eren and Kanal 5 (Denmark) broadcast singles finals and matches featuring local players.
Match Times in Central European Time (CET)
| Session Type | US EDT Time | CET Time | European Viewing |
| Day Sessions | 11:00 AM | 17:00 | Prime evening viewing |
| Night Sessions | 7:00 PM | 01:00+1 | Late night/early morning |
| Women’s Final | 3:00 PM (Sat) | 21:00 | Perfect prime time |
| Men’s Final | 1:00 PM (Sun) | 19:00 | Ideal weekend viewing |
Streaming the US Open 2025
- HBO Max
- Eurosport Player
- Sky Go
What is the US Open Tennis Championship?
For newcomers to tennis betting, it’s essential to understand that we’re discussing the tennis US Open (and very different from golf’s US Open) which forms part of tennis’ prestigious “Grand Slam” quartet alongside the Australian Open, French Open, and Wimbledon.
What makes a Grand Slam tournament so special? These are tennis’ equivalent to the Champions League in football as they offer the highest purses, the most ranking points, and have the greatest prestige in the sport. The US Open, established in 1881, has evolved into a modern spectacle that combines tradition with innovation, becoming the first Grand Slam to offer equal prize money to men and women back in 1973. This progressive spirit continues today, making it a favourite among European audiences who appreciate both sporting excellence and social progress.
Why is the US Open significant for tennis betting? As the final Grand Slam of the year and one of the last tennis tournaments of the season, the US Open carries immense psychological weight.
Why is tennis betting so popular among Europeans? Tennis has surged to become the second most popular sport for in-play wagering among European bettors, trailing only football. The sport’s individual nature, combined with the variety of betting markets available that can range from simple match winners to complex prop bets on aces, double faults, and set scores provides endless opportunities for strategic wagering.
Industry experts predict this year’s US Open will become “the most bet-on Grand Slam in history,” with 90% of tennis wagers now placed in-play. This shift towards live betting reflects the dynamic nature of tennis, where momentum can change dramatically within a single game, creating opportunities for alert punters throughout every match.
US Open 2025 Tennis Betting FAQ
1. Who are the betting favorites for US Open 2025?
Men’s: Jannik Sinner (2.08) leads as defending champion, followed by Carlos Alcaraz (2.42). Combined 89.4% market share.
Women’s: Iga Swiątek (3.45) slightly ahead of defending champion Aryna Sabalenka (3.55). Combined 57.2% implied probability.
Best Value: Alcaraz offers superior 2025 form (54 wins, 6 titles) and 9-5 head-to-head edge over Sinner.
2. What makes the US Open unique for tennis betting?
- Highest upset rate: 22.4% (second only to Wimbledon)
- 90% in-play betting – most dynamic Grand Slam
- Best conversion rates: Semifinals to finals 52% vs 43-47% at other Slams
- Hard court neutrality favors versatile players over surface specialists
3. What are the best US Open betting markets?
Quarter Winner: 34% conversion vs 8% outright winners
To Reach Final: 52% conversion rate, ideal for hedging
Live Betting: First-set winners convert 76% (men) / 82% (women)
Stage of Elimination: Men’s #3 seed, Women’s #8 seed vulnerable (5 R1 exits each since 2000)
4. When can Europeans watch US Open matches?
- Day Sessions: 17:00 CET (prime viewing)
- Night Sessions: 01:00 CET next day
- Finals: Women’s 21:00 CET Saturday, Men’s 19:00 CET Sunday
- Broadcasters: Eurosport (45 markets), Sky Sports (UK), HBO Max streaming
5. What key statistics should European bettors know?
- American advantage: 15% serve improvement in night sessions
- Weather factor: Wind >15mph reduces serve effectiveness 8%
- Break points: Opening game breaks = 68% set win rate
- Rally length: 5+ shot rallies favor technical players like Sinner/Swiątek
- Tournament efficiency: <15 hours to final = 73% championship success
All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and may have moved since the content was published. Betting markets shift constantly based on action and betting news. For the latest odds and current lines, visit the ibet Sportsbook.
